Former chairman of the board of directors of the Unified Energy System of Russia Anatoly Chubais
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin
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Chubais Predicts Energy Crisis in 2010
Anatoly Chubais, former head of RAO UES of Russia, is predicting an energy crisis in Russia at the beginning of 2010 if the rate of gas production in the country stagnates. He talked about this at the unveiling of his book Economic Notes, co-authored with Egor Gaidar.
There have been two cold winters in Russia out of the last seven, Chubais notes, and another one can be expected in 2010. Fuel oil reserves will be insufficient by that time, which could lead to a shortage of 7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. Electricity and heat can be generated, Chubais reasons, but technical limitations, such as the capacity of electricity generating stations and transportation complexities for fuel oil, hinder it.
Chubais suggests that the energy crisis of 2010 may be “substantial” and require evacuations from a number of cities. “But even those risks can be avoided if electricity reform and the liberalization of the natural gas market are approached sensibly,” he said. Chubais perceives a gas shortage in Russia even as gas export programs are being developed. He referred to gas export as a “sacred cow” that nonetheless had to be dealt with.
To remedy the situation, Chubais suggests changes in state policy on independent gas producers, giving them greater access to pipelines and the addition of clauses in export contract allowing deliveries to be curtailed in the event of necessity brought on by climatic conditions. He also stated that he risks of price manipulation have to be considered, since Gazprom controls 54 percent of gas supplies. But, he says, there is no pressing need for the reform of Gazprom itself.
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