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Accuracy of Political Forecasts
Accuracy of Political Forecasts
| Party |
Percentage of votes received by the party in the Duma elections (TsIK
data) |
Percentage of votes promised to the party by the most accurate VTsIOM
forecast |
Error (percentage points)* |
Percentage of votes promised to the party by the most accurate VTsIOM-A
forecast |
Error (percentage points)* |
Percentage of votes promised to the party by the most accurate FOM
forecast |
Error (percentage points)* |
Percentage of votes promised to the party by the most accurate ARPI
forecast |
Error (percentage points)* |
Percentage of votes promised to the party by the most accurate TsIOM
Glas Naroda1 forecast |
Error (percentage points)* |
Who made the most accurate prediction |
| Edinaya Rossiya |
37.57 |
35.0 |
-2.57 |
29.0 |
-8.57 |
36.9 |
-0.67 |
32.0 |
-5.57 |
25.2 |
-12.37 |
FOM |
| KPRF |
12.61 |
14.3 |
+1.69 |
23.0 |
+10.39 |
14.1 |
+1.49 |
12.0 |
-0.61 |
19.0 |
+6.39 |
ARPI |
| LDPR |
11.45 |
8.7 |
-2.75 |
8.0 |
-3.45 |
9.3 |
-2.15 |
5.0 |
-6.45 |
7.4 |
-4.05 |
FOM |
| Rodina |
9.02 |
5.0 |
-4.02 |
3.0 |
-6.02 |
7.2 |
-1.82 |
2.0 |
-7.02 |
5.2 |
-3.82 |
FOM |
| Yabloko |
4.3 |
5.0 |
+0.7 |
6.0 |
+1.7 |
4.2 |
-0.1 |
4.0 |
-0.3 |
5.2 |
+0.9 |
FOM |
| SPS |
3.97 |
5.5 |
+1.53 |
6.0 |
+2.03 |
4.0 |
+0.03 |
6.0 |
+2.03 |
5.3 |
+1.33 |
FOM |
*"+" -- forecast was higher than the actual result; "-"
-- forecast was lower than the actual result.
The parties are ranked in order of decreasing percentage of votes received
in the Duma elections of December 7, 2003. The most accurate forecast was selected
from all expert forecasts and public opinion poll data provided by the corresponding
agency for the period from November 1 to December 1, 2003.
1People’s Voice Center for
Public Opinion Studies (TsIOM Glas Naroda)
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