Andrey Makarov, deputy chief of State Duma's Budget Committee
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin
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Russia’s Budget to Become Moderately Optimistic
At today’s meeting, the government is likely to back up the moderately optimistic scenario for Russia’s development from 2008 to 2010, which will lay foundation for the three-year budget of the country, a source with the cabinet said.
Both the sluggish and moderately optimistic scenarios of the Economic Development Ministry are based on the average decline in the Urals price from $55/bbl in 2007 to $50/bbl in 2010. The ministry’s preference is the moderately optimistic outlook.
”The draft protocol generally suggests passing the second [moderately optimistic] variant and taking it into account when elaborating the budget draft and the final outlook for social economic development, which the government will consider in April and which will be submitted to the State Duma together with the budget,” said the source with the cabinet on condition of anonymity.
The moderately optimistic scenario provides for “implementing in whole the actions aimed at diversifying economy and introducing tax innovations,” the source said.
Under this outlook, Russia’s GDP is estimated to step up 5.9 percent in 2008, 5.9 percent in 2009 and 6.1 percent in 2010. It will go up 6.1 percent to 30.610 trillion rubles in 2007. The 2010 GDP is forecasted to widen to 44.410 trillion rubles.
Economic Development Ministry forecasts the industrial production to step up 4.3 percent in 2007, 4.5 percent in 2008, 4.7 percent in 2009 and 4.5 percent in 2010. Agriculture is expected to gain 2.8 percent in 2007, 3.8 percent in 2008, 3.8 percent in 2009 and 4 percent in 2010.
The 2008 inflation is forecasted at 6.5 percent to 7 percent in 2008, at 6.3 percent to 6.8 percent in 2009 and 5.8 percent to 6.5 percent in 2010. Economic Development Ministry predicts this year’s inflation at between 7.5 percent and 8 percent.
Russia will produce 492 million tons of crude in 2007, 500 million tons in 2008, 507 million tons in 2009 and 514 million tons in 2010. Gas output is forecasted at 668 billion cu meters in 2007, 683 billion cu meters in 2008, 705 billion cu meters in 2009 and 722 billion cu meters in 2010.
The oil exports are forecasted at 260 million tons for this year, while the gas exports will stand at 200.8 billion cu meters.
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